And with that the Pirates have won their seventh road series. That is pretty significant because over the past two seasons the Pirates have won just seven road series total! Not seven per year but seven combined! That is pathetic.
Doesn’t it seem odd how dejected Pirates fans are after not sweeping a road series? I’m guilty of this too, but we have been rooting for such a pathetic team but to be upset when we just win a road series seems a bit off to me. What the Pirates did in Chicago is great, and it’s what you expect your team to do on the road. Sure a sweep would have been nice, but I’ll take a series win, on the road, against a division opponent any day of the week.
The Pirates face yet another (surprise, surprise) team that pretty much manhandled them last year. The Pirates were a paltry 1-6 against the freaking Mets last season, getting outscored by an insane 22 runs. The Mets weren’t exactly a great team either, finishing fourth in their division ahead of only the hapless Nationals, and 18.0 games back from the division leader. Here is another opportunity for them to do two of those three little things I keep going on and on and on and on about, winning on the road and improving against an opponent they had trouble with from last year. If the Pirates can hold the fort against the opponents who they were decent against and improve against the team that really destroyed them last year they will find themselves in a pretty decent (not great) position by the end of the year. With the way they improved on the road, and in the division thus far it’s going to be hard not to see an improvement in the standings.
The Mets probable starters are Dillon Gee, R.A. Dickey, Chris Capuano, and Mike Pelfrey.
Dillon Gee (25) RHP
Dillon Gee is basically a rookie this season after spending just five games in the majors last season. In 33 innings last year he gave up eight earned runs on 25 hits en route to a 2-2 record. Surprisingly every one of his starts last season was a quality start. He spent the majority of his season at AAA Buffalo last year after a labrum injury cost him most of 2009. He won 13 games at AAA last year in 28 appearances, but really didn’t have impressive numbers. He gave up 9.7 hits per nine, 1.3 HR per nine, and had an ERA of 4.96. He did have some very impressive control numbers though, boasting a 4.02 SO/BB and only walking 2.3 batter per nine, both very good numbers. His strikeout numbers were higher than his average (9.2 compared to 7.9) but this isn’t a guy who has ever walked a whole lot of batters in the minors.
So far he has been pretty good. He was working out of the pen so he has nine appearances in between his six starts. He has just one quality start this season in which he gave up just two hits over 7.2 innings, but that hasn’t stopped him from compiling a 4-0 record. He is walking more guys at this level, and not striking many out so his SO/BB is just 1.61, a pretty bad number. He will definitely need to line that up more with his minor league numbers if he is going to find any sustained success at the big league level.
Gee faced the Pirates one time last year. He didn’t get a decision, but not for a lack of trying as he went six five hit innings of shutout ball. The only real blemish was the fact that he walked four batters, while striking out only three at Citi Field.
R.A. Dickey (36) RHP
Dickey is probably one of the oldest guys in the league that most people haven’t really heard of. That’s for good reason though because he isn’t very good. Dickey had a huge season last year, which catapulted him into a bit of fame, mostly from fantasy guys, but he is right back to where he started. Dickey was 11-9 last season with a 2.84 ERA. That marked one of only two seasons he had an ERA under 5.00 and the first time he ever had an ERA under 4.62.
So far this year the knuckleballer is having an okay go of it, although his record is just 2-5 over his eleven starts. He does have a 4.50 ERA, which is still under his career average of 4.68 but he is getting hit all over the place. He is giving up 10.8 H/9, 1.1 HR/9, and worst of all his SO/BB is just 1.67. Guys just aren’t swinging at his knuckler out of the zone, and torturing it when it is in the zone.
He has been nothing if not inconsistent. While he has four quality starts this season he has three starts that have gone less that six innings and has gotten the win in just two of his four quality starts.
The Pirates are looking for some revenge against Dickey after he threw a complete game against them at Citi Field. Dickey gave up just one run on five hits over his nine innings of work, although he struck out just four compared to three walks.
That would be his only career win against the Pirates, a team he has faced three times (two starts) in his career. Even though he threw nine innings in that game he has just 16.2 total innings against the Bucs, and even though he gave up just one run in that game he has given up six lifetime, so he hasn’t exactly dominated the Bucs outside of that one start, in fact he hasn’t been all that great in general against them. He does have a .900 WHIP when facing the Pirates but again, the CG inflates those stats a bit.
Chris Capuano (32) LHP
Chris Capuano is another member of this pretty rag tag, patchwork rotation that really has had one good season and has been thoroughly mediocre ever otherwise. That one remarkable season came in 2005 when he somehow managed to win 18 games for the Brewers with a 3.99 ERA. In spite of that he would never have that kind of success again. In fact even though he had a lower ERA last season the Brewers used him mainly as a reliever, giving him just nine starts in 24 appearances. He would put up a 4-4 record last season and the second lowest WHIP of his career, but a lot of that is because of being used in a limited bullpen role.
So far this season Capuano is 3-5 with a 4.94 ERA, being misused as a starter by the Mets. He has nine starts in eleven appearances so apparently the Mets think that he is capable of starting for some reason, despite the fact that across the board his numbers were better as a reliever last season.
Overall his numbers against the Pirates weren’t too great last year, although one of his wins came against the Buccos. He was just 1-0 in four appearances (two starts) but pitched just 9.1 total innings. The Pirates scored seven runs, belting ten hits, including two homers, against apparently the only Brewers pitcher that didn’t completely own the Pirates last year.
Capuano is familiar with the Bucs though, his fifteen appearances being tops against any team in the league. Thankfully he hasn’t been very good. He has a 3-6 record lifetime with a pathetic 6.46 ERA. He has thirteen starts in those sixteen games. He has given up a wonderful (depending on your prospective) 81 hits in 69.2 innings and has given up more homers (14) against the Pirates than against any other team. In fact he has given up more homers to the Pirates than he has given up in his inter-league career!
Mike Pelfrey (27) RHP
Pelfrey is having a pretty bad year, which seems to be par for the course as far as the Mets go this season. His last outing was a heartbreaker though. He went 7.2 innings, the fourth time he has gone seven or more innings this season but ended up getting the no decision in a game the Mets would end up losing 5-2. Pelfrey gave up just two runs on four hits against the divsion rivals but it would not be enough. Last night marked Pelfrey’s fourth quality start in the past five games, but his fifth on the season.
Pelfrey has been good in his last five starts, which is slowly turning his season around. He is 2-1 over that span with a 3.09 ERA, throwing 62% of his pitches for strikes and holding opposing batters to a .217 average. He started the first game of this span with an ERA of 7.39, and has chipped away at it,bringing it down to a still really high 5.00, but that is substantially better than his season high 15.63 earlier in the season.
Pelfrey finally had his breakout year for the Mets, it just seems like he is one of those guys who they are perpetually waiting for stardom from though. Last season he amassed 15 wins (9 losses) to go along with his really respectable 3.66 ERA. He struck out 113 batters last year, and while that is nothing overly impressive it was a career high for him, and his numbers almost identical to his other “breakout year” in 2008, in which he won 13 games and had an ERA of 3.72. Sadly between those years he posted a 5.03 ERA and the year prior he put up an ERA of 5.57. Is this year going to be another 5.00 + ERA for Pelfrey? History says that’s a pretty decent bet.
Pelfrey was very good against the Pirates last season, picking up wins in both of his starts and averaging 7.5 innings a game. Over his 15 IP Pelfrey allowed just three earned runs, good for an ERA of 1.80. He was better in his one PNC start last year, but not much. At Citi he went 7 IP, giving up two earned runs on just six hits. That tells you how good his PNC Park start went!
Pelfrey has a decision in each of his four career starts when it comes to the Bucs, posting a 3-1 record. His only career start against the Bucs at Citi was the one mentioned previously. Lifetime he has an ERA of 3.86, which means he did struggle prior to last year against the Bucs, and the Pirates line of .283/.355/.394 is actually surprisingly okay. In fact the Pirates OPS is right around average for Pelfrey, tied for 10th out of his 21 other opponents.
Player | vs. Gee | vs. Dickey | vs. Capuano | vs. Pelfrey | vs. Mets |
Pedro Alvarez | NA | NA | NA | NA | .182/.280/.318 |
Xavier Paul | NA | .000/.000/.000 | NA | .000/.000/.000 | .111/.150/.222 |
Ronny Cedeno | .333/.333/.333 | .000/.000/.000 | .167/.211/.333 | .333/.333/.883 | .182/.206/.303 |
Matt Diaz | .000/.333/.000 | .000/.000/.000 | .400/.400/.400 | .250/.400/.250 | .257/.296/.399 |
Ryan Doumit | NA | .000/.500/.000 | .111/.200/.111 | .125/.125/.500 | .194/.253/.299 |
Garrett Jones | .667/.667/1.00 | .500/.500/.500 | .167/.167/.333 | .500/.667/.500 | .333/.357/.593 |
Andrew McCutchen | .000/.000/.000 | .667/.750/.667 | .000/.500/.000 | .444/.545/.444 | .353/.436/.559 |
Lyle Overbay | NA | .143/.333/.143 | NA | NA | .310/.423/.569 |
Steven Pearce | NA | NA | NA | NA | .400/.538/.500 |
Brandon Wood | NA | .000/.000/.000 | NA | NA | NA |
Chris Snyder | .500/.667/.500 | .000/.167/.000 | .800/.857/1.40 | .375/.545/.375 | .247/.378/.466 |
Jose Tabata | .333/.333/.333 | .000/.000/.000 | .500/.500/1.25 | .000/.125/.000 | .130/.160/.348 |
Neil Walker | .000/.667/.000 | .000/.000/.000 | .250/.250/.500 | .125/.125./250 | .083/.154/.125 |
Pedro Ciriaco | NA | 1.00/.100/3.00 | NA | NA | 1.00/.100/3.00 |
The Pirates probable pitchers are Charlie Morton, James McDonald, Kevin Correia, and Paul Maholm.
Charlie Morton (27) RHP
Morton brings his 5-2 record to Citi Field to take on his former division rival. Morton continues to just succeed, and even managed to lower his ERA ever so slightly in spite of his loss in his last outing against his former team. Morton is also slowly, putting some separation in his SO/BB. Something will have to give in that regard, either the SO/BB will improve or his overall numbers, and success, will start to taper off. Most people have been saying that same thing all year and it has yet to really happen but it’s rare indeed for someone to be on pace for close to 20 wins accomplish that with a SO/BB of 1.14. Like I said before the last outing I expect a bit of distance to be built up eventually because his BB numbers are a bit higher than usual and his SO numbers are lower. It will just take some getting used to after overhauling his delivery.
Morton will be pitching on the road now, where he has more wins, but worse numbers. Morton had one start last season against the Mets and it came at Citi Field. He lasted just five innings giving up two earned on five hits. His BB problem definitely showed it’s face though as he walked four compared to just one strike out. He didn’t pick up a decision and the Pirates would eventually lose the game 6-2.
He only has one other appearance against the Mets a two inning zero run effort as an Atlanta Brave.
James McDonald (26) RHP
James McDonald continues to drive me insane. He did last six innings, giving up just two runs and picking up his second straight quality start, but it took him 99 pitches to do it. He isn’t working efficiently at all and I never would have guessed he would be having less success than Jeff Karstens. Low and behold that is what is happening. He is another pitcher whose numbers should start to resemble normal, especially after dealing with injury problems that basically derailed his entire Spring Training. Usually I would look at two straight quality starts, and five in his last six games as a positive thing, but there is just something I get watching his starts that makes me feel uneasy. He gave up just six hits, not an atrocious number, and walked only one batter. He struck out six guys and threw 64 of his 99 pitches for strikes, but I just don’t feel comfortable yet.
McDonald wasn’t too swift against the Mets last year. He made four appearances (two starts) and lasted just 13.2 innings. The Mets plated eight “men” on 13 hits and got nine (!!!!!) free passes to just eight strikeouts. Surprisingly one of those games was a huge success, and it was the only one he pitched at Citi Field. He somehow threw 8 innings of five hit shutout ball, but ended up getting the no decision.
Lifetime he is 0-1 with a 4.41 ERA against the Mets, having appeared in six games, although four of those were relief appearances. His SO and BB numbers even up at 11, and he has given up 14 hits in 16.1 innings, both moderate improvements over last year. He has pitched an additional 2.2 innings at Citi Field in relief and has not given up a run. In fact the Phillies and Mets are the only two teams he has faced more than once that have yet to score a run against McDonald at home.
Kevin Correia (30) RHP
After Kevin Correia picked up his win against the Cubs he became the NL leader in wins. A pretty rare occurrence for a Pirates pitcher this late in May. Correia obviously leads the team in wins and has been just a steady, calm, pitcher for this club. He doesn’t seem to get razzled or frustrated, just a steady presence on the mound. His last outing was yet another road gem, putting up a goose egg in 7.1 innings of work. The Cubs had no answer for Correia collecting just four hits and two walks to drop Correia’s ERA down to 3.44 and give him yet another road win.
I went on about how I expect him to revert back to normal on the road and for his home numbers to improve a bit in my last preview and I still expect it. It’s just unsustainable and guys don’t usually completely reinvent themselves at 30. Correia is a good pitcher, but we’ve seen years like this before. That’s not to say he is definitely going to fall off a cliff because Jose Bautistas do happen, but I still think it’s a good idea to temper expectations, and a very good idea to listen to any offers other ball clubs might have.
Correia somehow got a win in his only start against the Mets last season but it certainly wasn’t because of anything he did. Correia lasted six innings but he also gave up six runs on seven hits on his way to the win. Wrap your mind around that. A pretty bad hitting team’s starting pitcher won a game at a pitchers paradise in which the starter gave up six runs. I hope KC bought those guys lunch the next day.
Correia has kind of mixed numbers against the Mets lifetime. He is 1-3 against the Mets in ten appearances (four starts). His only win came in that aforementioned abortion. So you’d think his ERA would be double digits? Nope including that 9.00 he put up in one of his four starts his ERA is actually a really good 2.94! That’s second best against any opponent he has faced multiple times. Lies, damn lies, and statistics I guess. He has given up four homers in his 33.2 innings of work, he has also given up 33 hits but his SO/BB is 3.00. So it’s a real hodgepodge of oddities against the Mets. Who knows what’s next? A complete game shutout in which he gives up seven walks and strikes out one? A three inning blowout in which he allows just one hit, a grandslam after hitting three straight batters? The stats really don’t tell much about his career against the Mets except that you can’t predict what he’s going to do against the Mets. Maybe that’s what they are supposed to tell us?
Paul Maholm (28) LHP
Allow me the opportunity to gush about Paul Maholm a little bit? He came out prepared to get no run support against the Cubs, throwing a complete game three hitter, all three hits played a bit less than optimally. What’s more is that Paul Maholm pitched seven perfect innings to get the complete game. Just a few bounces, or a few great defensive plays and Maholm achieves a perfect game. Maholm has been a horse, and a class act so far this season and he deserved to perform like that. He deserved the win. He deserved the ten runs of support he got. Most of all though, if he keeps pitching like this, he will deserve to have his $9 million option exercised.
If Maholm can start getting some wins to go with his really good pitching it will almost force the Pirates hand. And if he can have some success next year, maybe you don’t have to trade him. Maybe you can wait it out, offer the guy arbitration and get yourself a draft pick if he walks? I think the Pirates are at the point where they don’t have to be trading guys for the best available deal. They need to be trading guys for the best possible deal, or keeping them for their own benefit.
One thing that has been overlooked with Maholm is that he has been injured throughout the course of the last two seasons. Sure when healthy he hasn’t been a model of consistency but he is pitching healthy. The guy is a lefty and he is getting it done. He is also only 28 years old. The chances of finding a decent starting lefty next season for under $10 million (without a risky, multi-year deal are very slim). Maholm gives us a guy that’s been here, has pitched well before, and just as importantly is still pretty young.
People screamed for the Pirates to sign Jorge De La Rosa this past offseason for more than what Maholm would get next season. This in spite of De La Rosa’s age, injury history, and really lack of results. De La Rosa has NEVER had a season as good as Maholm’s 2008, and sure as hell not this year. In fact De La Rosa’s career ERA is 4.90! Maholm has had the better career despite his poor winning percentage. I think it’s time some of us (staring blankly in the mirror) start to prepare a nice sauce for our crow. Should it be eaten yet? No. Guys have good halfs all the time. Should we start preparing? You bet your ass we should.
Maholm was efficient and deadly in his last outing, which is his third career complete game shutout. Like I said earlier he seven of his innings were perfect and it shows in his pitch count of just 91 pitches. Generally complete game pitchers hover between 105ish and 120, not this time. I feel really good about Maholm’s arm after this game as opposed to guys who struggle after throwing a ton of pitches just to get the CG. That win puts Paul Maholm in 51st All Time in wins for a Pirate.
Maholm faced the Mets just once last season, a loss at Citi Field. Maholm actually got roughed up pretty good, lasting just 3.2 innings but giving up two runs on a whopping seven hits, striking out one while walking two.
Maholm has never won at Citi Field getting a loss in each start and giving up nine runs on seventeen hits over the course of 8.2 innings. Pretty pathetic for a starting pitcher actually.
Overall Maholm is 3-3 lifetime against the Mets, with an ERA of 4.60. He has allowed 56 hits in 45.0 innings, and his SO/BB is just 1.25. He is giving up a line of .315/.378/.382 over the course of his career against the Mets, although this Mets team isn’t quite the same as it has been.
Cubs Win 3-2, Dempster rejoices.
Player | Hits | DBL | TPL | HR | RBI | BB | SO | BA | OBP | SLG | OPS |
Matt Curry | 56 | 15 | 3 | 9 | 34 | 33 | 28 | .376 | .487 | .698 | 1.185 |
Bryce Harper | 53 | 13 | 0 | 10 | 34 | 23 | 38 | .329 | .413 | .596 | 1.009 |
Another pathetic performance by the offense wastes two more awesome pitching performances. I thought Clint Hurdle was the god of pitching coaches with Texas? All I’ve seen is a guy who says all the right things to the media, but manages a terrible game. I’ve also seen a pretty inept team fundamentally. Much of this is probably the talent level, but for all the love heaped onto Hurdle from the apologists this team isn’t all that much better (record-wise) than last season.
That said there are still plenty of bright spots, and Hurdle does deserve some credit. This team has improved on the road and against the division. The pitching staff also has really turned a corner, although I think Searage deserves the credit for that as the staff seemed to be making some strides of he took over for Joe “Don’t Use That Sinker Charlie” Kerrigan.
The Pirates will once again take on a division rival, this one a team they kind of dominated last year, the hated Chicago Cubs. This is a great opportunity (again) to get this thing moving in the right direction. The Pirates took the first series in Chicago, outscoring the Cubs by a slim margin of 14-12 earlier in the season, with Correia and Karstens picking up the wins. The Pirates will once again play at Wrigley, all of the games are day games.
The Pirates are coming off three straight losses, including the mini-sweep by the Braves and the bats have been absolutely pathetic. Pathetic to the point of absurdity actually. Still it can’t be stressed enough how important these road games against division opponents are. I think that in some ways winning on the road is more important for the growth of the young players. The home wins will come, but being able to go in and take a series from a team on the road can help to bring these guys together.
The Cubs probable pitchers are Doug Davis, Randy Wells, and Ryan Dempster.
Doug Davis (35) LHP
Davis is, and has been, a journeyman for quite some time now. He spent last season with the Brewers, his second stint with them, where he was 1-4 with a 7.51 ERA in eight games. Davis really was never all that great to begin with. His career WHIP is 1.505, but has only been that low one season since 2005. His career SO/BB is a pathetic 1.65 and he has had one full season since 1999 in which he gave up less than a hit an inning. The ONLY reason he is still pitching is because he is a veteran lefty. And I don’t know why anyone cares about that.
Davis has two starts this year, a 5.0 four hit game in which he gave up one run and a 3.2 inning eight hit abortion in which he gave up seven.
Davis did face the Pirates last season and he got hit up pretty good. In five innings he gave up seven hits, including two homers, allowing four runs (all earned), while walking three, and striking out just two.
Davis is another one of those guys I just always remember playing. He has faced the Buccos more times than any other team somehow, appearing in 23 games (all starts). Somehow he is one of the few mediocre pitchers that the Pirates haven’t made look like Cy Young. While Davis does have a winning record of 8-6, he has an ERA of 4.91 in his 128.1 innings he has given up a staggering 150 hits. In fact the Pirates line for Davis’ career is .298/.379/.437. The only Pirate who currently has a better OPS than that this season is Ryan Doumit.
The thing that blows my mind about Davis that he has made $32,510,000.00 in his career! He has a 91-103 record! That means he has gotten $357,252.75 per win! Teach your kids how to throw left-handed!
Randy Wells (28) RHP
Randy Wells comes off a pretty mediocre season. A lot was expected of him last season coming off his 12 win Rookie season, but he bumped along his way to a 8-14 record, with an ERA of 4.26. Not bad by any stretch, but pretty mediocre considering what people expected.
Wells was actually drafted as a catcher by the Cubs, and eventually was lost to the Blue Jays in the Rule V draft, but returned to the Cubs three days after making his debut.
Wells will make his first start of the season against the Pirates Saturday. His only other start came on April 4, 2011. He would go six strong innings en route to the win against the Diamondbacks, giving up just one earned on six hits, the only run being a solo homer. He wouldn’t get another opportunity going down with a forearm strain.
Wells actually wasn’t very good against the Pirates last season in his three starts. He would post an 0-1 record and pitch just 13 innings over three games. He also struggled with control, walking ten batters, the same number he struck out. His ERA and WHIP really tell the story, 4.85 and 1.615 respectively.
That’s a contrast to his 2009 season in which he faced the Buccos twice and went 13.0 innings as well. This time he would get the win in each game and post an ERA of just 2.08, with a WHIP of 1.231. He also managed to K more than BB, in fact his SO/BB was more than double (2.33).
In five career starts, spanning 26 innings he has never allowed a home run to a Pittsburgh Pirate, although Chris Snyder has one as a Diamondback.
Ryan Dempster (34) RHP
Dempster was the Cubs Opening Day starter this year getting shelled by the Pirates and picking up the loss at Wrigley. The Pirates were able knock two out of the park against Dempster chasing him after 6.2 with six earned on six hits. The homers are a trend for Dempster, giving up at least one homer in seven of his eleven starts with two of them being two homer games, and one a three homer outing.
He has been pretty inconsistent this season, but looks to be turning things around a bit after giving up seven earned runs in just .1 innings on April 28, Dempster has four quality starts in the five games since. Still he has a losing record, sitting at 3-4 with an ERA of 6.29, though that is heavily inflated due to his .1 inning game. Dempster really has given up not only the longball (1.6 per nine) but an uncharacteristic amount of hits (10.6 per nine, compared to his career average of 8.9).
Here is what I wrote in the previous preview about Dempster’s career numbers against the Pirates:
He had very little success against the Pirates last season, in fact he picked up the loss in all three of his starts. While striking Pirates out at a 10.6 per 9 clip last season he also gave up 19 hits in 17 innings.
His career stats tell a pretty similar story. He has faced the Pirates more than every team but the Houston Astros in his 13 year career, and has found little success. In 45 games (20 starts) he has a 5.63 ERA. No team has scored more runs, or interesting been hit by more pitches, against Dempster over the course of his career than the Pirates.
Player | vs. Davis | vs. Wells | vs. Dempster | vs. Cubs |
Pedro Alvarez | NA | NA | NA | .243/.282/.297 |
Xavier Paul | NA | .000/.000/.000 | .000/.000/.000 | .190/.227/.190 |
Ronny Cedeno | .133/.133/.200 | .000/.000/.000 | .417/.462/.500 | .225/.262/.288 |
Matt Diaz | .100/.250/.200 | .000/.000/.000 | .000/.000/.000 | .183/.210/.233 |
Ryan Doumit | .143/.200/.143 | .200/.333/.400 | .182/.250/.182 | .254/.360/.420 |
Garrett Jones | .111/.111/.111 | .308/.308/.385 | .133/.278/.333 | .290/.357/.530 |
Andrew McCutchen | .600/.667/1.4000 | .545/.583/.818 | .313.389/.563 | .333/.417/.515 |
Lyle Overbay | NA | NA | .333/.750/.667 | .258/.347/.391 |
Steven Pearce | .333/.500/.500 | NA | .500/.667/1.000 | .325/.429/.375 |
Brandon Wood | NA | NA | NA | .333/.333/.333 |
Chris Snyder | .000/.400/.000 | .333/.333/1.333 | .364/.364/.364 | .247/.313/.506 |
Jose Tabata | 1.000/1.000/1.000 | .000/.333/.000 | .200/.469/.600 | .270/.372/.351 |
Neil Walker | .000/.333/.000 | .667/.667/.667 | .625/.625/1.250 | .422/.435/.844 |
Pedro Ciriaco | NA | NA | NA | NA |
The Pirates probable pitchers are Kevin Correia, Paul Maholm, and Jeff Karstens.
Kevin Correia (30) RHP
Correia seems to be alternating good and bad starts now. His last start was very nice, going 6.2 IP and giving up just two runs on seven hits. It was also the first victory Correia got at home. And by victory I don’t just mean his decision, I mean it’s the first time the Pirates have won a game that he appeared in at home.
Correia got the win on Opening Day against these very Cubs, allowing two earned on seven hits over six innings. It marked his first Opening Day victory, and was his first of three wins in five games and his first road win in what would turn into five straight wins on the road for Correia.
So far this year Correia hasn’t only been much better on the road he has been pretty dominating. His only road loss so far came against the Brewers who beat him, and every Pirates pitcher, up pretty nice at Miller Park. Still he is 5-1 with a 2.79 ERA on the road this year.
It seems too good to be true though. Correia currently has a 2.79 ERA on the road, his secondary numbers point to that being a good amount of luck though. His SO/BB is a pretty ho hum 1.90 on the road, compared to a healthy 3.00 at home. That’s a bit odd though because his SO/9 is better away. He is walking a much higher amount on the road though. He is walking a batter about every eighth inning at home, on the road he is walking them about every four. Almost twice as much. Another alarming, and very telling stat is his BABIP. At home he has been a bit unlucky, posting a BAbip of .322, on the other hand his BAbip on the road is an extremely low .234, which explains the lower road WHIP and in a lot of ways how he has been able to deal with walking so many guys. His OBP at home is just .016 higher than the opponents batting average (part of that has to do with the high average), his road OBP (while lower than his home) is .050 higher. Once his BAbip comes more in line I think we see him come falling (if not crashing) back down to earth.
For what it’s worth as a starter his career BAbip is exactly .300. As a reliever it’s not much different at .304. So the home numbers might get a bit better, but the road numbers are going to revert to the mean eventually and they will probably look dramatically worse.
Now not to be a Debbie Downer he also hasn’t been very good lifetime against the Cubs. Including his last start he is 2-2 with a 5.10 ERA in nine games (five starts). Surprisingly for having nine appearances against the Cubs seven of them (including three starts) came at Wrigley. He got both of his decisions there but his ERA balloons to 6.62, which fell dramatically from his ERA before his last start of 8.49.
Paul Maholm (28) LHP
Ya know what I’m tired of hearing about? Paul Maholm’s lack of run support. Ya know what I’m really tired of? Paul Maholm’s lack of run support. It is criminal that this guy is 1-7 with how is throwing. Ya know what else? Say the Pirates don’t trade Maholm, then they exercise his option next year and he has a good year. This is the type of thing that could hurt his chances of becoming at Type B free agent. Imagine if this year would cost the Pirates a draft pick in Maholm’s walk year?
Anyway that’s way to far out too care about now. What isn’t too far out is his next game. It’s tough to say about a guy who has done what Maholm has that he needs to go out and give this team six or seven really good innings but it’s true. The Pirates NEED this series, and the Cubs are primed for a sweep. Maholm’s streak of quality starts was snapped at three his last outing, he lasted just 5.1 innings, though giving his chance every opportunity to win, allowing two runs on six hits. The bats didn’t score at all. In fact over Paul Maholm’s past two games he has the same amount of strikeouts as the Pirates have scored him runs TOTAL! Maholm has twelve strikeouts in his past two games, the Pirates have twelve runs in his past ten. That is pathetic.
Maholm got the no decision (better than the L I guess) against the Cubs his first time out. It wasn’t for a lack of results from Paul though, he pitched 6.2 scoreless innings, giving up just five hits. The Pirates would go on to lose that game, a game in which the bullpen not the bats, ruined it for Maholm.
Maholm is 7-2 against the Cubs (5-2 at Wrigley) in 14 starts. His ERA is still a pretty high 5.89 overall and a surprising 6.38 at Wrigley. Paul Maholm’s whole career apparently is a mess of numbers not going together. Who would think a guy with an ERA of 5.89 would have a record of 7-2? At the same time who would think a guy with an ERA of 3.65 would have a 1-7 record?
Jeff Karstens (28) RHP
Jeff Karstens is 3-3 with a 3.57 ERA. It’s true, it’s true. In fact of those three wins one of them, his first of the season, came against the Chicago Cubs at “beautiful” Wrigley Field. He pitched a whole one innings of relief, putting up zeroes in every category.
Karstens actually got the loss in his last outing, giving up two runs in two innings of relief work against the Cubs. He did strike out three and gave up two hits, sadly one was a homer.
As a starter this year Karstens is 2-2 with a 3.82 ERA in 37.2 innings. Guys are hitting him up for a pretty decent line of .280/.316/.500. It will be interesting to see how he pitches on three days rest after pitching out of the pen. It really shouldn’t be that big a deal as he was probably scheduled to throw anyway that day.
Karstens was pretty solid against the Cubs in three starts last season, posting a 1-1 record with an 3.00 ERA over 18.0 innings. That six inning average is about right for Karstens overall. He really gave up the longball against the Cubbies last year, allowing four homers while only allowing 17 hits. Three of those homers came in his two games at Wrigley, where he received both decisions and oddly enough has the exact same ERA and average innings pitched per game.
The Cubs are one of only two teams Karstens has multiple wins against, the other two being the Toronto Blue Jays (2). Karstens is 4-2 in eight appearances (six starts) lifetime against the Cubs. He also has a pretty good ERA of 3.86 and a reasonable SO/BB of 1.90. All four of his wins have come at Wrigley, in fact the only decision he has against the Cubs away from Wrigley is a loss at PNC. He also boasts a fantastic 2.25 ERA and his WHIP of 1.083 is lowest of any ballpark he has made more than one start at.
