Soooooooooooo some team from Pittsburgh is heading into the All-Star break in first place. #PACKPNC and celebrate this! This is what we’ve all been waiting for!
First Pitch: 1:35 PM EST
Where to Watch: Root Sports, MLB.TV, CSN-BA
Tim Lincecum, RHP (28)
Any other time I’d be all like “Ohhhhhhh crap, Timmy is coming to Tahn, it’s ovah for da Buccos!”. Actually that’s not true. I’m not from Pittsburgh and, if you’ve heard the podcast you know, I don’t talk like that at all. The point holds true though.
The Freak has basically been the weak this year. Guys are having no problems hitting him at all. His walk rates are also at career highs. Big problems in Lincy Land.
| W | L | G | GS | CG | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | 5 | 4.00 | 24 | 24 | 0 | 146.1 | 122 | 70 | 65 | 12 | 65 | 150 | 112 | 1.278 | 7.5 | 0.7 | 4.0 | 9.2 | 2.31 |
| 18 | 5 | 2.62 | 34 | 33 | 2 | 227.0 | 182 | 72 | 66 | 11 | 84 | 265 | 168 | 1.172 | 7.2 | 0.4 | 3.3 | 10.5 | 3.15 |
| 15 | 7 | 2.48 | 32 | 32 | 4 | 225.1 | 168 | 69 | 62 | 10 | 68 | 261 | 171 | 1.047 | 6.7 | 0.4 | 2.7 | 10.4 | 3.84 |
| 16 | 10 | 3.43 | 33 | 33 | 1 | 212.1 | 194 | 84 | 81 | 18 | 76 | 231 | 114 | 1.272 | 8.2 | 0.8 | 3.2 | 9.8 | 3.04 |
| 13 | 14 | 2.74 | 33 | 33 | 1 | 217.0 | 176 | 74 | 66 | 15 | 86 | 220 | 126 | 1.207 | 7.3 | 0.6 | 3.6 | 9.1 | 2.56 |
| 3 | 9 | 6.08 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 93.1 | 96 | 66 | 63 | 9 | 49 | 101 | 58 | 1.554 | 9.3 | 0.9 | 4.7 | 9.7 | 2.06 |
| 72 | 50 | 3.23 | 173 | 172 | 8 | 1121.1 | 938 | 435 | 403 | 75 | 428 | 1228 | 125 | 1.218 | 7.5 | 0.6 | 3.4 | 9.9 | 2.87 |
This year will be the first season he hasn’t made the All Star team since his rookie year in 2007.
It is almost mind-blowing that he only has four quality starts this season.
| Date | Opp | Rslt | Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 6 | ARI | L,4-5 | L(0-1) | 5.1 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 8.44 | 94 |
| Apr 11 | COL | L,8-17 | 2.1 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 12.91 | 76 | |
| Apr 16 | PHI | L,2-5 | L(0-2) | 6.0 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 10.54 | 94 |
| Apr 23(1) | NYM | W,6-1 | W(1-2) | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 8.20 | 108 |
| Apr 28 | SDP | W,2-1 | W(2-2) | 8.0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 5.74 | 121 |
| May | Opp | Rslt | Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | |
| May 4 | MIL | L,4-6 | 5.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5.68 | 84 | |
| May 9 | LAD | L,2-6 | L(2-3) | 5.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5.89 | 101 |
| May 15 | COL | L,4-5 | 7.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 5.77 | 122 | |
| May 20 | OAK | L,2-6 | L(2-4) | 4.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 6.04 | 90 |
| May 25 | MIA | L,6-7 | L(2-5) | 5.2 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 6.41 | 97 |
| May 30 | ARI | L,1-4 | L(2-6) | 7.0 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 5.82 | 112 |
| June | Opp | Rslt | Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | |
| Jun 5 | SDP | L,5-6 | 6.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 1 | 5.83 | 102 | |
| Jun 10 | TEX | L,0-5 | L(2-7) | 5.2 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 6.00 | 104 |
| Jun 16 | SEA | L,4-7 | L(2-8) | 5.0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 6.19 | 90 |
| Jun 22 | OAK | W,5-4 | 6.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 6.07 | 105 | |
| Jun 27 | LAD | W,3-0 | W(3-8) | 7.0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 5.60 | 115 |
| July | Opp | Rslt | Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | |
| Jul 3 | WSN | L,3-9 | L(3-9) | 3.1 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6.08 | 87 |
| 93.1 | 96 | 66 | 63 | 49 | 101 | 9 | 6.08 |
He didn’t face the Pirates earlier this season. Sadly.
So what’s wrong with Lincecum? I have a pretty good idea of what it may be. He is struggling out of the stretch.
| Split | PA | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | SO | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RISP | 135 | 105 | 53 | 33 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 26 | 19 | 0.73 | .314 | .440 | .524 | .964 | .356 |
| — | 229 | 209 | 6 | 51 | 15 | 2 | 6 | 19 | 67 | 3.53 | .244 | .310 | .421 | .731 | .331 |
| Men On | 195 | 158 | 56 | 45 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 30 | 34 | 1.13 | .285 | .393 | .456 | .848 | .339 |
| 1– | 60 | 53 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 | 3.75 | .226 | .281 | .321 | .601 | .297 |
| -2- | 50 | 40 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 7 | 0.70 | .250 | .400 | .500 | .900 | .281 |
| –3 | 14 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.33 | .364 | .500 | .455 | .955 | .400 |
| 12- | 33 | 25 | 8 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 0.57 | .280 | .438 | .360 | .798 | .333 |
| 1-3 | 10 | 9 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1.00 | .444 | .500 | .667 | 1.167 | .500 |
| -23 | 11 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.75 | .429 | .636 | .857 | 1.494 | .667 |
| 123 | 17 | 13 | 16 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3.00 | .385 | .353 | .692 | 1.045 | .385 |
| on 1st, lt 2 out | 81 | 64 | 27 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 11 | 1.10 | .375 | .442 | .547 | .988 | .418 |
| on 3rd, lt 2 out | 35 | 24 | 23 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 5 | 0.63 | .458 | .543 | .667 | 1.210 | .500 |
| on 3rd, 2 out | 17 | 16 | 9 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3.00 | .313 | .353 | .625 | .978 | .333 |
Those numbers are very telling. Something else that is telling? His stolen bases against numbers.
| G | GS | Inn | SB | CS | CS% | lgCS% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 | 24 | 146.1 | 10 | 2 | 17% | 25% |
| 34 | 33 | 227.0 | 20 | 3 | 13% | 27% |
| 32 | 32 | 225.1 | 20 | 5 | 20% | 29% |
| 33 | 33 | 212.1 | 27 | 3 | 10% | 29% |
| 33 | 33 | 217.0 | 23 | 14 | 38% | 28% |
| 17 | 17 | 93.1 | 11 | 0 | 0% | 27% |
| 173 | 172 | 1121.1 | 111 | 27 | 20% | 28% |
| 173 | 172 | 1121.1 | 111 | 27 | 20% | 28% |
Giants have thrown out zero runners when Lincecum pitches.
It doesn’t seem like it’s totally on the catchers either as neither of them have caught anyone stealing.
| Split | G | IP | SB |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buster Posey | 13 | 74.2 | 5 |
| Hector Sanchez | 4 | 18.2 | 6 |
All of that leads me to believe that Tim Lincecum is probably tipping pitches from the stretch in some way.
Another problem is a decrese in velocity.
2011:
MPH data reflect a lengthened (y=55ft) trajectory to better approximate a major league release point. |
2012:
MPH data reflect a lengthened (y=55ft) trajectory to better approximate a major league release point. |
Tables courtesy of Brooks Baseball.
It may not seem like much but a few miles per hour can be a very big difference, especially if he is also tipping his pitches.
Anyway. On top of struggling in general, he has been putrid on the road.
| Split | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2 | 4 | 3.99 | 8 | 8 | 49.2 | 42 | 24 | 22 | 1 | 26 | 46 | 1.369 | 8.3 | 1.77 |
| Away | 1 | 5 | 8.45 | 9 | 9 | 43.2 | 54 | 42 | 41 | 8 | 23 | 55 | 1.763 | 11.3 | 2.39 |
He has also allowed nine of his eleven stolen bases on the road.
Lincecum didn’t face the Buccos last year, and has faced them just four times in his career. He hasn’t dominated them like you’d figure he would have.
| W | L | G | GS | CG | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 3.10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 29.0 | 24 | 12 | 10 | 4 | 7 | 39 | 1.069 | 12.1 | 5.57 |
Okay. Maybe some of those secondary numbers are dominating.
Despite pitching well at PNC Park he has never recorded a victory there.
| W | L | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 2.57 | 2 | 2 | 14.0 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 1.000 | 10.3 | 5.33 |
Good JuJu abounds.
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clint Barmes | 18 | 17 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 4 | .118 | .118 | .294 | .412 |
| Rod Barajas | 16 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | .063 | .063 | .063 | .125 |
| Andrew McCutchen | 11 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | .000 | .091 | .000 | .091 |
| Garrett Jones | 10 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 4 | .300 | .300 | 1.000 | 1.300 |
| Casey McGehee | 9 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | .111 | .111 | .111 | .222 |
| Neil Walker | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | .000 | .500 | .000 | .500 |
| Kevin Correia | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .000 | .000 | .000 | .000 |
| Total | 70 | 65 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 3 | 20 | .108 | .147 | .262 | .409 |
The key is getting guys on base. If the Pirates can do that they should be able to break this one open.
A.J. Burnett, RHP (35)
Last game before the All Star break. Time for A.J. to send the Buccos into it on a high note.
A.J. did not pitch well in his last outing, and his win streak was snapped at eight games. Still he will have a chance to get ten before the break, something Pirates fans aren’t all that used to.
On a positive note, the Pirates have won eleven straight games when Burnett pitches. More good JuJu.
| Date | Opp | Rslt | Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 21 | STL | W,2-0 | W(1-0) | 7.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 0 | 0.00 | 76 |
| Apr 27 | ATL | L,1-6 | L(1-1) | 6.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 1.38 | 94 |
| May | Opp | Rslt | Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | |
| May 2 | STL | L,3-12 | L(1-2) | 2.2 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8.04 | 72 |
| May 8 | WSN | W,5-4 | 8.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 6.08 | 93 | |
| May 13 | HOU | W,3-2 | 8.0 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 5.12 | 103 | |
| May 19 | DET | W,4-3 | W(2-2) | 6.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4.78 | 106 |
| May 25 | CHC | W,1-0 | W(3-2) | 5.1 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 4.19 | 105 |
| May 30 | CIN | W,2-1 | W(4-2) | 7.0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3.60 | 103 |
| June | Opp | Rslt | Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | |
| Jun 5 | CIN | W,8-4 | W(5-2) | 5.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 3.76 | 100 |
| Jun 10 | KCR | W,3-2 | W(6-2) | 7.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 3.61 | 107 |
| Jun 16 | CLE | W,9-2 | W(7-2) | 6.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3.52 | 96 |
| Jun 22 | DET | W,4-1 | W(8-2) | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 3.24 | 98 |
| Jun 28 | PHI | W,5-4 | W(9-2) | 6.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 1 | 3.31 | 101 |
| July | Opp | Rslt | Dec | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | HR | Pit | |
| Jul 3 | HOU | W,8-7 | 5.0 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 3.74 | 91 | |
| 86.2 | 84 | 37 | 36 | 31 | 74 | 7 | 3.74 |
All this JuJu talk would be insane without mentioning how good Burnett has been at home. He has been outstanding.
| Split | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5 | 0 | 2.01 | 8 | 8 | 53.2 | 42 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 14 | 45 | 1.043 | 7.5 | 3.21 |
| Away | 4 | 2 | 6.55 | 6 | 6 | 33.0 | 42 | 24 | 24 | 6 | 17 | 29 | 1.788 | 7.9 | 1.71 |
Burnett also has no real platoon split, so the litany of switch hitters the Giants have won’t make much of a difference.
Being an AL pitcher as of late Burnett didn’t face the Giants last season. He does have a solid amount of experience against them though. And a bunch of success.
| W | L | G | GS | SHO | IP | H | R | ER | HR | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5 | 2 | 1.84 | 7 | 7 | 1 | 49.0 | 33 | 12 | 10 | 1 | 18 | 37 | 1.041 | 6.8 | 2.06 |
This is a different team then he is used to dominating though so that stats aren’t very important.
| PA | AB | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melky Cabrera | 22 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | .095 | .136 | .095 | .232 |
| Gregor Blanco | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | .500 | .571 | .500 | 1.071 |
| Joaquin Arias | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| Nate Schierholtz | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | .333 | .333 | .333 | .667 |
| Ryan Theriot | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .000 | .333 | .000 | .333 |
| Total | 38 | 35 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | .200 | .263 | .200 | .463 |
