The Pirates basically have to win this game. I say this for two reasons.
1. They lost the first game of the series. Generally that has meant they would eventually win the series.
2. It just seems so right that the day after the Pens won their series with a team from Long Island the Pirates should too.
Personally I wouldn’t look for a similar game to yesterday.
Jeanmar Gomez is coming off a pretty good outing. An outing which should have lasted longer.
There was no reason at all to pull him due to pitch count. He had plenty of rest and threw more pitches in his last outing.
I know this will shock you regular readers but I’m not a massive believer in Gomez. I think the Pirates have been very lucky to get such quality out of him.
|CLE (3 yrs)||14||16||5.18||42||38||206.2||241||133||119||28||71||112||76||1.510||10.5||1.2||3.1||4.9||1.58|
|PIT (1 yr)||2||0||2.38||7||2||22.2||18||7||6||3||11||15||153||1.279||7.1||1.2||4.4||6.0||1.36|
|AL (3 yrs)||14||16||5.18||42||38||206.2||241||133||119||28||71||112||76||1.510||10.5||1.2||3.1||4.9||1.58|
|NL (1 yr)||2||0||2.38||7||2||22.2||18||7||6||3||11||15||153||1.279||7.1||1.2||4.4||6.0||1.36|
First off he is walking too many batters. That needs to stop. To his credit he did show some separation in his last outing.
That is a cause for concern. Gomez isn’t going to sustain such a wildly below average BAbip forever. If that number does move up to his career average, which is basically the league average, he will be in trouble.
On top of that his FIP (4.98) and xFIP (4.15) are much higher than his ERA (2.38).
I’d also expect lefties to start hitting him better at some point. This year they are hitting .192/.276/.308. Over the course of his career they have hit .273/.340/.454.
Throw all that in a pot and I think you can reasonably assume a fall is coming.
The question is when.
No one can really answer that. Except maybe Miss Cleo. She seemed legit.
He has never faced the Mets.
Earlier I said I wouldn’t expect today to look like yesterday on the scoreboard. The reason for that wasn’t so much that I expected Gomez to fail, he might pitch pretty well against an anemic Mets team.
No, it is Matt Harvey that will be keeping things on lockdown for the Mets. Matt Harvey was drafted the same year the Pirates took Jameson Taillon. While he was a top 100 prospect he only made Baseball America’s list once, showing up at 54 prior to the 2012 season.
He has dominated this season though. His last outing was nearly a perfect game.
The Mets have won 14 games, six of them came when Harvey started.
In seven starts he has allowed more than a single run just once. Six of his seven starts were quality starts. And not cheap ones either.
His average outing is 7+ innings.
That near perfect game was absolutely dominant too. It wasn’t smoke and mirrors and great plays. Harvey went in there and dominated a major league team.
The only reason to feel good about this outing is that he threw a lot of pitches in a highly emotional situation. Maybe he’ll be a bit worn out after all that.
One can hope I guess.
First Pitch: 1:10 PM EST
Where To Watch: Root Sports, MLB.TV, SNY